The Short Answer
27% of mandatory reconsiderations cleared in the quarter ending January 2026 changed the award, excluding withdrawn ones. Across the longer run of initial decisions made between October 2020 and September 2025, the figure was 17%. Both come from the DWP's quarterly PIP statistics. They describe outcomes across a population, not the odds in any particular case.
The Published Figures
The table below sets out the position, with each figure taken from the source named beneath it.
| Measure | Figure | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Reconsiderations changing the award | 27% | Quarter ending January 2026 |
| Reconsiderations changing the award | 17% | Initial decisions Oct 2020 – Sep 2025 |
| Decisions with a reconsideration registered | 20% | Oct 2020 – Sep 2025 |
| Reconsiderations registered | 700,000 | Oct 2020 – Sep 2025 |
| Completed reconsiderations then appealed | 33% | Oct 2020 – Sep 2025 |
| Initial decisions awarded PIP | 54% | Oct 2020 – Sep 2025 |
Last checked: 7 August 2026
The base for the five-year figures is 3.5 million initial decisions following a PIP assessment. Both series exclude withdrawn reconsiderations, which is why the wording matters when comparing them with figures published elsewhere.
Why the Two Numbers Differ
They cover different periods and different populations. The 27% is a single recent quarter of cleared reconsiderations. The 17% spans five years of initial decisions and includes every reconsideration that followed them.
The DWP also notes that numbers for later periods can rise as more reconsiderations and appeals complete, because both take time to be lodged and cleared. A recent quarter is therefore less settled than an older one.
Reading either as a trend on its own would be wrong. What both establish is that a meaningful minority of decisions change at this stage.
What the Stage After Shows
A reconsideration that fails is not the end of the picture. Of completed reconsiderations, 33% went on to lodge an appeal. Of appeals lodged, 20% were "lapsed" — the DWP changing its own decision in the claimant's favour before a hearing. Of those that reached a hearing, 65% were overturned.
Last checked: 7 August 2026
Those figures sit on a shrinking population at each stage. Only 7% of initial decisions are appealed at all, so the high overturn rate applies to a small, self-selected group — usually the cases with the most to argue, often with advice-sector support.
The full breakdown, including the Ministry of Justice's own series, is on tribunal outcomes.
What the Figures Do Not Say
They do not predict an individual case, and nothing here should be read as odds. A reconsideration succeeds on the evidence it carries that the original decision did not have.
What the numbers do justify is a practical conclusion: asking for a reconsideration is worth doing where the points section shows a genuine disagreement, because a material share of decisions change and the request costs nothing but the time to write it.
How to Use This
The process, the deadline and what to put in the request are on process and letters. Figures on this page are checked against each quarterly release; where a newer publication differs, the newer publication governs.